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College Pick 'em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every Thursday to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'em page on Mondays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews, and don't forget to check the message boards for plenty of chatter about all the week's action.

Congrats again to J. Stewart, who stayed on top of the leaderboard this week and now boasts 213 points out of a possible 220. Also, look for updates to my rankings on the contest message board prior to making your final selections at lock time on Saturday morning.

The Nittany Lions haven't been tested by their schedule, but Penn State's new "Spread HD" offense is rolling so far, and overall this team is playing as well as any in the nation right now. The first home night game will have Paternoville rocking, and it will be tough for a young Illinois team to win in that environment. The Illini are aided by an extra week of preparation, but the coaching matchup is still a mismatch, especially when it comes to sideline strategy and in-game adjustments. Penn State's quarterbacks and receivers are playing very well so far, but the Lions likely will turn to the running game to dent an Illini defense that's surrendered four and a half yards per rush. The Illini are motivated to show that last year's success wasn't a one-time affair, and will be at least as pumped up for this one as the Lions. Illinois is a capable offensive team, but Penn State looks too strong across the board for Illinois to match for four quarters.
Penn State 34-17

When Joe Tiller was hired at Purdue, he placed a lot of emphasis on making the Purdue-Notre Dame series competitive again. Now in his 12th and final season, the man who just became Purdue's all-time winningest coach is 5-6 against the Irish. He'll be 6-6 after Saturday, as Purdue may have its best team in several seasons. Receivers have emerged for senior triggerman Curtis Painter, and Kory Sheets has really stepped up following backfield mate Jaycen Taylor's preseason injury. So far the defense has been torched as usual, but the Boilermakers have faced a formidable slate of offenses in Oregon, Central Michigan and Northern Colorado, which is seventh in the FCS in total offense. Notre Dame is better than last September's train wreck, but still looks like the same team that beat Duke and Stanford down the stretch last year. It remains to be seen how much the Irish will improve from their miserable 2007, or whether they'll make a bowl. One thing is certain, though: The more optimistic forecasters were wrong. Notre Dame can't run the ball, and with the exception of the occasional flash of brilliance from sophomore Golden Tate, the Irish receivers had no chance last week against an average Michigan State secondary. The Dame's defense appears slow and often out of position. Notre Dame is just plain bad right now, and there isn't really anything encouraging going on in South Bend, aside from high recruiting marks. Last week the soap opera was Weis' knee injury; now the latest distraction is the hubbub caused by a forbidden laptop in the Irish press box last week. Even with a cushy schedule, the Irish are not a lock to make a bowl. Tiller is beloved by his players and they will play hard for him all season. The better team wants it more and Purdue wins going away.
Purdue 31-14

Wisconsin hasn't won in the Big House since 1994, but this rebuilding Michigan edition may fail to uphold several of the program's streaks. Poor tackling has been a complaint of the Wolverines' coaches so far, and the Badgers' P.J. Hill is certainly not one of the easiest guys to bring down with anything less than textbook technique. Always one of the nation's best-executing teams, Wisconsin will be crisp after its bye week. The Badgers are battle-tested after their war at Fresno, and now they're getting healthier. Michigan had the benefit of an off week as well, and the Wolves should be less sloppy than they were in the downpour at Notre Dame. Wisconsin is one of the few Big Ten teams that hasn't gone to some form of spread offense in the past few years, and the Badgers have always had trouble with four-wideout sets, especially when accompanied by a mobile quarterback, perhaps because the team never sees that look in practice. Michigan runs a spread, but the Wolverines aren't very advanced at it yet. The young offensive line won't be able to exploit the Badgers' weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball, and the punishing Wisconsin attack should eventually pull away from a newborn offense that just isn't yet equipped to outscore the opposition. Michigan's defense is a solid unit, especially against the run, but the Wolverines are unlikely to keep pace for four quarters. A Michigan win would be a significant upset.
Wisconsin 34-17

The Blue Devils are much improved all-around under first-year coach David Cutcliffe. Virginia, meanwhile, is circling the bowl in what will be Al Groh's final season. A bad offense got worse when starting quarterback Peter Lalich was dismissed from the team, and the Cavaliers were forced to thrust untested sophomore Marc Verica into the fire in a 45-10 trucking at Connecticut. Considering the circumstances, Verica played well, but the Virginia defense didn't, allowing 206 rushing yards to the Huskies' Donald Brown. The Wahoos have been outgained in six of their past seven games versus FBS opponents. The 2-1 Devils, on the other hand, outgained Northwestern by 144 yards even in defeat. There's no reason why a suddenly optimistic Duke program fielding its best team in years can't finally escape the ACC basement this season, and so far it's the Cavs -- not NC State -- looking like the program on the league ladder's 11th rung. The homestanding Devils will be fired up at a legitimate opportunity to notch their first ACC win since 2004, and it's very hard to see Virginia winning this game. However, I do expect Virginia to play with better effort coming off the bye week. The Cavs have shaken up their depth chart in a youth movement of sorts, and it's possible that the players will come together behind Verica, who earned respect with his solid showing just days after he learned he would start against Connecticut. Virginia players know that Duke is favored in this game, and the Cavaliers could be well-motivated to prove they haven't fallen behind a Blue Devils team that's won just once in its past 32 ACC tilts. Duke fits the model of an upstart program with renewed optimism that's off to a good start under a first-year coach. Often such teams are handed one final loss by the stagnating rival that's being overtaken. This is still just Game 4 of Cutcliffe's overhaul, and while it's hard to see Duke blowing this game, I don't trust the miscue-prone Devils to run away with it unless Virginia has been wholly unable to rally emotionally.
Duke 24-16

UCLA was beaten soundly by Arizona a week after getting abused at BYU, and the Bruins are really struggling, especially on offense. Quarterback Kevin Craft has had one good half in three games, and the ground game has managed a paltry 153 yards on the season. The youthful Bruins, however, seem to be buying into coach Rick Neuheisel's theme of "relentless optimism." The players have been upbeat this week despite the losses, and it's unlikely that such a young team will go in the tank completely in a known rebuilding year. The possible return of senior running back Kahlil Bell would give the offense a significant boost. Fresno State, though, still has the far better offense and a comparable defense. The Bulldogs claim to have bonded together after a double-overtime escape at Toledo, and BCS foes -- especially in-state ones -- are usually magnets for all-out efforts from Pat Hill's valley dwellers. Still, this team has to be drained after the war with Wisconsin and the 55-54 shootout in the Glass Bowl. It's not often the Dogs have to view games like this through the lens of the favorite, and while Fresno State should have enough firepower to prevail here, the Bruins will show better than they have in the previous two weeks.
Fresno State 31-24

Virginia Tech is experiencing the closest thing to a rebuilding year in some time. The Hokies were brutal offensively in last week's game, especially in a miserable first half that produced just two first downs. North Carolina quarterback T.J. Yates' injury was the emotional turning point in the game and a huge break for Tech, but the Hokies do deserve credit for consistently requiring only a minimum of offensive production to win ballgames. The last time Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor faced a Bo Pelini defense was last year's ugly 48-7 beatdown in Baton Rouge. Pelini, however, doesn't have many LSU-caliber athletes at his disposal in Lincoln right now. Last year's Huskers defense set school records for most points and yardage allowed. Tech will struggle to move the ball as always, but that's not absolutely certain to produce a victory for a relatively untested Nebraska team with a brand-new coaching staff. The Huskers look to be improved this year, but the damage done to the program during the Bill Callahan era isn't going to be repaired overnight. Tech should be able to run the ball more effectively than in its past two ACC games, and while Nebraska has the offensive wherewithal to overcome the Hokies' defensive athleticism, the Huskers' margin for error isn't great here.
Nebraska 24-17

Alabama is clearly an ascendant program and has all the weapons required to pull off a win. The Tide are dominating the line of scrimmage with a top-notch offensive line and a deep stable of quality backs that ensures that fresh legs are always available. Quarterback John Parker Wilson is an inconsistent but determined senior leader capable of a big performance. The Tide are on the balance a confident, well-prepared team loaded with young talent. Georgia, for its part, looks every bit the legitimate national title contender. The Dogs feature a fast, physical defense, an NFL quarterback with a capable stable of targets, and the best player on the field in sophomore dynamo Knowshon Moreno. Georgia looks to have its best team in Mark Richt's eight-year tenure, yet there is a sense that Alabama has already caught up. There are questions about the Tide's pass rush, and Bama hasn't had to call on its green receivers to win a game through the air. Otherwise, though, the Tide looks to be as complete a team as most of its top-10 brethren. The Crimson Tide really fall short in only one critical area: experience. For all its advancement in the second year of the program's Sabanization, Alabama is still a young team. Georgia, though, is no longer under construction. The 2008 Bulldogs represent the culmination of eight years of program-building. The difference in maturity will show as the more experienced host makes a few more plays in what should be another SEC classic.
Georgia 27-24

Florida State entered the season touting a settled quarterback situation, an actual running game and better chemistry between second-year offensive boss Jimbo Fisher and the offensive staff. Two routs over FCS foes fueled the optimism. Instead of dawning a new era with a big win over Wake Forest, however, the Seminoles gained 220 total yards, amassed 139 penalty yards, threw five interceptions, switched quarterbacks in midgame and just generally embarrassed themselves in one of the worst offensive performances in school history. In other words, it was just like last year. The offense is still a disaster, and the quarterback position remains unsettled. The lack of progress and the deer-in-the-headlights look from both coaches and players have caused unprecedented fan unrest. It remains far from certain that Fisher will ever be the head coach at FSU. It's true that Florida State is a fairly young team. It's also true that Colorado's defense is not Wake Forest's, though the Buffaloes did keep West Virginia in check. The Buffs' offense has certainly demonstrated that it can score, though. The Seminoles' defense played lights out against Wake and gets back a handful of players from suspension this week. That unit will have to answer the bell against a capable Colorado attack, because Florida State's offensive problems are not going away. Colorado is even younger and thanks to attrition now has just 57 scholarship players at its disposal who are not slated to redshirt. Still, the Big 12 entrant looks like a sharper, hungrier team than a shocked, reeling Florida State group.
Colorado 21-17

Tennessee had the aura of a program whose power was on the wane even before opening the season with an upset loss to a poor UCLA team and a 24-point home blowout against Florida. With two defeats already marring the 2008 record, the Volunteers can ill afford another. Phil Fulmer has had a lot of practice preparing his team to bounce back after a loss to Florida, though, and the Vols will bring their best effort to the Plains on Saturday. Auburn's season isn't in as much jeopardy after a hard-fought loss to defending national champion LSU, but the Tigers may be taking last week's defeat even harder than their SEC East counterpart. Auburn, too, has the smell of a program losing steam, and rumors of disharmony between the coaches won't go away even now that Chris Todd's progress has ended the quarterback controversy. Auburn is the better team on paper, and the Tigers' offense can only be interpreted as having made progress against LSU despite the loss. Tennessee, however, looks more like a team in back-against-the-wall mode, while Auburn seems to be a little more down after last week's defeat. Like most SEC games among the league's A-list programs, this one should go to the wire.
Tennessee 21-20

Stanford has little in the way of a passing attack, while Washington can't find a running game outside of quarterback Jake Locker. The Huskies have issues in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and even Stanford's anemic attack figures to move the chains behind running back Toby Gerhart. Stanford's undermanned defense has played inspired ball at times, but the Cardinal show much better at home. This is a huge game for Washington. Winless and coming off a bye, the Huskies have lost only to heavily favored opponents. Now the team gets a fair fight, and it can't afford to be passed in the Pac-10 pecking order by a Stanford team that went 1-11 just two seasons ago. Of course, that one win was against the Huskies, and Stanford actually has three more league wins than Washington since the end of 2004. Stanford is the ascending program while Washington is decaying under Ty Willingham. However, the Huskies are coming off a bye, playing at home and sporting the game's best playmaker in Locker. A hungry UW team gets a narrow win over a Stanford group still a little drained from last week's comeback win over rival San Jose State.
Washington 28-24

Will Harris is a college football and fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com.